How Will Our Foods Differ In Future

It is a fact that the foods consumed throughout human evolution have changed depending on the ecology of the living environment. However, in today’s globalizing world, standardized food consumption is changing due to “consumer preferences”.

The cause of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming is the change in the tilt of the earth’s orbit around the sun and its axis. These pre-industrial climatic changes caused people to migrate, the extinction of many living species, and sometimes almost complete changes in food types and varieties.

We can attribute the changing trends in today’s food consumption to the desire for a healthier life and well-being. The increase in the number of calories consumed in recent years confirms this.

It is predicted that the amount of food produced today should be increased by 50-70% in the 2050s due to population growth, global warming, and increasing welfare levels. But we should expect not the same rate of change in the main nutrients we will consume in the future.

At this point, the necessity for agricultural strategists to know which agricultural production is expected to be consumed in what quantity in the future comes to the fore. This question finds answers in the reports of many international organizations such as FAO, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the World Food Program (WFP), the World Resources Institute (WRI), and CGIAR.

The average annual consumption per capita of main products in 2005, 2006, and 2007 and the expected values in 2050 are discussed in the TABLE and the ratio of the differences to the observed values (%) has been calculated and the data in the last column has been reached. Based on these figures, it can be easily understood which products will be consumed more. Based on these data, we may prioritize research, investment, and production of certain products in the future.

Based on these data, let’s look for an answer to the question of what kind of reorientation we may need to make in our country’s agriculture.

• Let’s first take a look at the expected increase in the annual kilocalorie value per capita: Since there will be an increase in both plant and animal food consumption to meet this energy, which is expected to increase from 2772 to 3070, there will be an 11% increase in these products to meet the daily calorie requirement. We have to provide. We also need to calculate the population growth rate.

• “1%”, which seems as if there will be no change in grain consumption, is actually a bit misleading. Because these days, when we watch the rapid transition from wheat to rice in a country with a high population like China, it is necessary to make a separate evaluation of the grains themselves. As a matter of fact, he mentioned in detail in this link that the annual per capita rice consumption has doubled in the last 30 years in Turkey due to urbanization.

• Do not expect sugar beet producers to be happy when the annual sugar consumption per capita is expected to increase from 22 kg to 25 kg within the specified period. Because sugar cane will come to the fore as a source of sugar. In fact, sugar beet will be the only cultivated plant whose cultivation area will be narrowed.

• One kg increase in legume consumption actually means a 15% increase in this group of plants. In the EU 7th Framework research projects, priority has been given to leguminous plants in science-based bioeconomic projects. The principle of this approach is to spread this product, which is the main food of the Mediterranean diet, especially to northern Europe, to reduce health expenses while protecting society in terms of healthy nutrition. It would be beneficial for Turkey, which is no longer self-sufficient in products such as lentils and chickpeas, whose cultivation areas have narrowed due to the expansion of our irrigated lands, to make a move in legume production and to renew its research and support programs.

• The highest increase expectation in the table is observed in vegetable oils. For this category of which we are an importer, Turkey must develop special strategies.

• Meat and milk are the main food sources whose consumption is expected to increase. We can say that our country, where farm fishery is increasing rapidly, has fulfilled what is necessary without realizing it. It would be beneficial to draw the attention of Turkish food industrialists to the plant-based meat issue, which is rapidly becoming available in Western countries [1].

According to the expected increases in these food categories, we come across the need for each country to reorient the necessary investments and research. Well, to what extent do we know these details from politicians to bureaucrats, from scientists to the private sector of investors? In the planning of the future, not the individuals and units already mentioned, but “think tanks” have taken on a task.

Despite the expected shrinkage, all countries are in a race for bioeconomic research that will provide more yield per unit area to produce more. On the other hand, each country has to develop very different systems-strategies for plant breeding for new varieties[2] that can adapt to the conditions that will occur with global warming. As a matter of fact, BRIC countries have almost restructured their agricultural research systems. BRAZIL, as the first developing country to realize the importance of seed breeding – Ministry of Agriculture, Seed Sector and Universities Agricultural Research Council gathered under the name “EMBRAPA”. While this organization has enabled Brazil to become the world market leader in many products, it has not been limited to “variety development” alone. The varieties developed have created such an opportunity for agronomic opportunities that they have provided the producer with the opportunity to buy two soybeans in one year and “wheat + soybean” in one year, that is, two crops per year from the same land[3].

ICAR (Indian Agricultural Research Council) 59 institutes, 69 Agricultural Universities, and 636 stations and biotech variety candidates in tens of cultivated plants meet the new variety requirement of the country for the future.

As a country, we need to establish the national “Agricultural Research Council” that will gather the public, private sector, and universities under one roof.

Nazimi Açıkgöz

Note: This article is summarized from a Turkish article: (https://nazimiacikgoz.wordpress.com/2023/01/05/gida-tuketimimiz-farklilasirken/)